DEL
MAR, August 14, 2012 – Gooood TUESDAY morning San Diego!!! After a day of driving and flying yesterday, I have returned
at last, escaping almost unbearable Midwest humidity, only to find much of the
same here in Del Mar. So much for that ocean breeze alleviating the need for
forced central AC down here near the water.
In
any event, I found myself updating two of my listings this morning on Zillow,
and stumbled into some grandioso proclamations via Zillow’s “June 2012 Housing
Survey.” The survey polled 114 leading real estate and Housing experts, notable
economists and market strategists, and the like on a number of things Housing-related.
At
the forefront of the Survey were predictions for the S&P/Case Shiller U. S.
National Home Price Index over the next five years. And strangely enough, the
results indicate an overall general consensus, an agreement amidst constant and
notorious disagreeable “experts.” Overall, those polled concluded that housing
prices will bottom out by the end of 2012 and then begin their long awaited
incline throughout 2013. The Survey estimates a 1.4% increase in overall
property values nationally during 2013. 
This
sounds, smells, and tastes like a lot of bad kool-aid to me. Of course, I’m not
one of the so-called “experts” consulted in this survey, and don’t doubt their
credentials and acumen, especially after reviewing the names of some of the
individuals who partook. However, it is often wise, when it comes to polls, to
consider the source(s). For example, with the Presidential Election Season in full swing,
allow me to point out that with the mere flick of the channel from FoxNews to
MSNBC, we see very different numbers on the same topics and polls. And yes, a
few percentage points is a BIG difference when considering a wide gamut of
people across the nation.
In
any 5 year forecast of Housing, there are just too many factors in play, and
factors that quite simply can’t yet be addressed as they lurk unseen or unborn, to
accurately predict the next five years. Nothing is absolute. Yes, mortgage
defaults and more and more foreclosures are all but certain. In fact as I’m
typing, I’m sure a handful or more of lis pendens and other types of
foreclosure filings are being filed. The instability of European currencies and
governments, with the same unfolding here stateside, Presidential and Congressional
seats changing and reforming the political landscape, at least two more
appointees to the Supreme Court this next Presidential term, aliens landing on
the foot of all major capitals demanding loan modifications, you get the drift…
So,
in the absence of absolute knowledge of the next five year Housing
cycle, stay tuned to Jason Bernabei's "Monday Morning Market Watch" to see it all unfold
right here in real time. I promise to keep my ear to the ground and my
nose out in the field. In the interim, feel free to contact me if you
are looking to refi, or need a purchase loan, or are looking to buy or
sell property, need a good short sale negotiator, or if you just want to
shoot the breeze on Housing.
Jay's Outlook: ...
Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty
