Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty: "Is the Housing Market showing Strong Signs of Rebound?"

 Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty

CHICAGOLAND, August 6 2012 – Goooooood Monday Morning San Diego from just outside the Windy City! While I love spending time with the fam over my usual end of summer trip, the humidity here reminds me again of one of the reasons why we call San Diego ’s Finest City.” In the spirit of the nostalgia of summers past, the dog days of August of my youth, I find myself also reflecting on the Housing market of the first half of 2012, now in the books, and what the “experts” got right in the way of forecasting, and of course, what they didn’t.

As you might recall, as 2011 wound down, the housing market was showing its first real signs of a rebound. Home sales were strong, home supplies were approaching bull market levels, and buyer activity was strong and getting stronger. Homebuilder confidence was at its highest point in over 2 years and single-family housing starts had made its biggest one-month gain since 2009.

As for the mortgage market, well, the 30-year fixed mortgage dipped under 4% and seemed to be headed for even lower ground. Optimism began to surface from the depths of the last half decade of doom and gloom, and word of friendlier lending guidelines to come began to surpass the whispers of blogs, and move into the national headlines.

However, the dark side of the economy remained, the daunting obstacles still stood as fixtures that optimism needed to get round, unable to just break on through. The Eurozone's sovereign debt issues remained in limbo, oil prices spiked and then spiked again and then again, and the Unemployment Rate remained high despite slow jobs growth over multiple quarters .

Pundits, so-called experts, talking heads, bloggers, real estate agents, bankers, investors, and similar ilk lined up and mouthed off a wide gamut of prognostications, from a Housing and Lending Rebirth to further doom and gloom of the likes we’ve yet to see.  American Banker said mortgage rates would rise in 2012, while the LA Times stated the case for lower rates forthcoming. Freddie Mac said home prices ought rise in 2012, while at the same time CBS was out in the forefront calling for another year of softening.

Halfway though 2012 (and then some) affords us some hindsight on those aforementioned forecasts. So what has transpired thus far? Job growth slowed considerably after a strong first quarter in 2012, the cost of oil dropped rapidly beginning in early-May, and Italy and Spain have joined Greece as potential sovereign debt trouble-zones. Today, home prices remain low, and market softening has continued across most of the U.S.. 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates now average around 3.56% nationally. Home affordability is higher than it has been at any time in recorded history and low down payment mortgage products remain available, while lending guidelines have softened to some extent.

So what wil the rest of the third quarter of 2012, and the subsequent fourth quarter reveal to us San Diego? (drrrum rolllll please...) Stay tuned to Jason Bernabei's "Monday Morning Market Watch" to find out! In the interim, feel free to hit me up if you are loking to refi, or need a purchase loan, or are loking to buy or sell property, need a good short sale negotiator, or if you just want to shoot the breeze on Housing.

Jay's Outlook: to be determined 

Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty