Thursday, November 10, 2011

Jason P. Bernabei, TriCastle Realty, "Weekly Housing Industry forecast"

Jason P. Bernabei, TriCastle Realty

DEL MAR, November 7 201  -- Goooooooddd Monday morning San Diego!!! I hope everyone enjoyed the rain this weekend! Hey, last week I advised that it was only partially sunny, after all, but I definitely didn’t see the storm clouds coming, I must admit. Next time I’ll do better in the way of channeling my inner Sabrina Fein. But nobody reads a market watch to hear about the actual weather, so let’s move past the cold front and get into this week’s market forecast, and what it all means for housing.

First, the “kinda-sorta” good news. The ADP Private Payroll Report has announced that the private sector has again delivered the kinda-sorta good news that unemployment numbers have gone down, albeit veeeeery slightly. I say “kinda-sorta” because when the national Unemployment Rate goes down from 9.1% to 9% even, it’s hardly time to hail year 11 of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and corporations as a recipe for job creation. But this isn’t A.M. radio, and this paragraph isn’t about trickle-down Reaganomics. This is about GOOD NEWS. So here’s some more… Business and professional services are up over $526,000 in 2011. Restaurants and hotels up $313,000. Retail trade up $156,000. Mining jobs up $152,000. All numbers comparative to last year. Not a whole lot of real, impactful growth in any of these areas in the grand scheme of the economy, but welcome to my kinda-sorta perspective on this Monday morning.

The not so good news is far from kinda-sorta, it’s the same story it’s been for almost a half decade. The real estate market is still in the toilet, and ultimately, so is the economy. The two are so closely related that you can’t really talk about one without referencing the symbiotic relationship to the other. The aforementioned positive strides are far less than figurative strides, and miles from even qualifying as baby steps. Of course, a politically motivated do-nothing congress driven by Tea-sipping obstructionists who simply won’t pass a jobs bill until after this next election cycle continues to sit on their hands, and instead calls for votes on reaffirming whether “In God We Trust” ought be “reaffirmed” as our National Credo. Yes, that actually happened this past week, and a vote on a jobs bill… well… didn’t. But I digress, even as things regress…

Mortgage rates were up and down as tepid fears over the turmoil of Greece’s economy and subsequent bail-out, as well as the uncertainty and calamity surrounding the European Union, have made for turbulent waters. If you’ve got a mortgage loan in process, you better hope your loan officer has his or her finger on the pulse if he or she is locking your rate this week.

To wrap things up on this partially cloudy (hint-hint) Monday morning, allow me a brief moment of shameless self-promotion, and to end on a positive note. The real estate market is prime for investors to buy, fix, and flip properties and for new home buyers who qualify for a home mortgage loan to get a place at prices unimaginable just five years ago. I don’t know how or when, nobody does, but it will all turn around and those values will go back up, up, up.

Don’t miss the wave! Give me a holler today at jasonb@tricastle.com, and check me out each and every Monday on www.tricastle.com for more, and tune in to “The Realty Insiders” on the tube this winter to see myself, and other local property rehabbers flip SD.

Jay’s Outlook: (the same as the Chargers’ chances of having had a stellar, repeat second-half performance at QB against GB, as they did against KC)

Partially Cloudy


TriCastle Realty, The Realty Insiders, Jason Bernabei













Jason P. Bernabei, TriCastle Realty, Monday Morning Market Watch