DEL MAR, September 17 2012 --
Gooooood Monday Morning San Diegggo!!! The weather is hot, the Padres are not,
and the Chargers are undefeated!!!!! In the spirit of paying mind to “the Good,
the Bad, and the Ugly,” I turn my attention today to the news afforded by
recent national foreclosure data from industry data titan RealtyTrac.
So how about
“the bad” news first. Yes it’s true that despite recent legislation in past
quarters aimed at encouraging the short sale process vs. the actual finality of
a foreclosure, the national market for foreclosed homes remains strong, and is
evidently getting stronger. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure activity
increased 1% in August as compared to July, So how about “the bad” news first. Yes it’s true that despite recent legislation in past quarters aimed at encouraging the short sale process vs. the actual finality of a foreclosure, the national market for foreclosed homes remains strong, and is evidently getting stronger. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure activity increased 1% in August as compared to July, just above 193,500 units
nationwide. To give you a ratio, that’s roughly 1 in every 680 U.S. households having
received some form of foreclosure filing last month. Now, as I’ve highlighted
in numerous past blogs, it is important to note that a ”foreclosure filing” is
any one of these three foreclosure-related actions : (1) A default notice on a
home, also known as a “lis pendins” (2) a scheduled auction for a home (3) a
bank repossession of a home. Only the third action results in the finality of
the bank actually “taking” the home from the Seller.
The high
number of lis pendins in August is an indicator that more U.S. homeowners are
falling behind on payments, yet for the 22nd consecutive month, the number of actual
bank repossessions went down. So that’s the “good” news, and it suggests that
lenders are reaching agreements on short sales or loan modifications more
often, and therefore reducing the number of distressed homes for sale
nationwide. Fewer homes for sale is one reason why U.S. home prices have been
rising nationally, and even quite aggressively in certain pockets of the country.
Interestingly enough, in August only six states accounted for more than half of
the country’s bank repossessions, yet those six states — California, Florida,
Georgia, Illinois, Michigan and Arizona — represent less than 1/3 of the entire
U.S. populace.
So now for
“the Ugly.” I’m sure it comes to much of no one’s surprise here in America’s
Finest City that in my neck of the woods, out here in Del Mar, there aren’t
foreclosures lining every street. In Detroit, however, there are. And if you
think politics hasn’t had a hand in the real estate and lending collapse of the
past ½ decade, think again. Mitt Romney, from Michigan, who infamously declared
“Let Detroit go bankrupt,” has the same philosophy towards home-owners in
mortgage default as he did the auto industry and those American working
families. If he wins, his plan is ‘let Americans in default go bankrupt, lose
their homes, and let investors profit on those foreclosures.’ 
In real
estate, and in REAL life, this election cycle is shaping up to be as important
to our country’s future as any ever, and it’s implications range from good to
bad to ugly and beyond. Had Romney won in 08, GM and the American Auto industry
would be gone forever, and quite literally, millions would be homeless, and
over a million more, jobless. “Let Detroit die” indeed, and all of America in
mortgage default with it. Not so long as I have a vote! Ugly is as Ugly does,
and while Mitt Romney may be a great father, loving husband, and dedicated
parishoner, his philosophies as they relate to real estate and distressed
mortgagees are the same uber-draconian and merciless assaults on the American
Dream that has defined his ever-expanding right wing doctrine. Plain and
simple, they must not come to pass if Housing is going to make it full circle.
In any
event, I promise to keep you abreast of “the good, bad, and the ugly” moving
forward on all things real estate each and every week. Should you have any
questions, thoughts, or have any real estate, lending, credit restoration, and/or
debt settlement needs, feel free to contact me at jasonb@tricastle.com, and check me out at www.tricastle.com/jasonbernabei. Until
then, happy Indian summer to SD and to all of the U.S.!
