Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty
DEL MAR, February 6, 2012 -- Gooooooood Monday Morning San Diego!!!! Wow, what a week of economic news! Jobs! Jobs! JOBS! No, not Steve Jobs(R.I.P.), and the allegations of subhuman labor standards in Apple’s Chinese sweatshops, not that Jobs news flash from this past week. No, I’m talking J-O-B-S, JOBS!
DEL MAR, February 6, 2012 -- Gooooooood Monday Morning San Diego!!!! Wow, what a week of economic news! Jobs! Jobs! JOBS! No, not Steve Jobs(R.I.P.), and the allegations of subhuman labor standards in Apple’s Chinese sweatshops, not that Jobs news flash from this past week. No, I’m talking J-O-B-S, JOBS!
When it comes to jobs and this latest jobs data, it isn't really in the eye of the beholder, and so it ought surprise no one who knows me that I’m going to here again disagree with the chorus of Republican naysayers singing in unison about their half-empty cup. With re-election in mind, a good number of them are out in the forefront of the positive jobs data making sure that the masses know that while this economic data all SEEMS like good news, really it isn’t… No, really, Tea Party Nation, it is, it really is.
In my line of work, in Housing and Lending, there is no rebound without this continued, measurable jobs growth. So let’s look at the GOOD news and how more of it will continue to move the industry in the right direction. In January 2012, to be frank, job creation has simply soared. The U.S. economy produced approximately 243,000 new jobs, while simultaneously the unemployment rate dropped down to 8.3 percent. This wildly exceeded the expectations of most pundits and so called “experts.” And to the righties decrying Obama as a socialist, take note that of these newly created jobs, the vast majority were in the private sector. Manufacturing, health care, mining, retail, food and beverage are the major contributors to this latest surge. Reaaaaallllllly good news for this economy, and for Housing.
The demand for Housing, after all, is driven by multiple factors, but none more impacting than these two: Employment(or Unemployment depending on whether or not your glass is half full or half empty) and Consumer sentiment. The more people working, the more people earning income, the more likely they are to consider purchasing real estate, and the more likely they are to QUALIFY to ascertain the mortgage lending they need to do so. The more Americans with dollars in their pockets means more potential to invest. Now, is the BIG rebound in Housing at hand? Well no, let’s not get too excited. There is an avalanche of mortgage defaults coming our way in the next few years, and it remains to be seen if HARP and other proposed government band aids will be enough to remove that impending albatross from our collective necks. There is certainly plenty of portending doom and gloom to forecast. But let’s allow ourselves a moment to buy into the good news a little bit here. These numbers on the economy are real, and the impact in Consumer Sentiment is widespread.
Rates are low, very low. On Thursday, mortgage backed securities surged to their highest levels EVER, with the Fannie Mae 3.5% coupon traded at it’s highest level since it was issued. EVER. Fortunes reversed almost just as quickly by Friday with MBS selling off their highs, and that is the marketplace at work, doing what it’s supposed to do. Nonetheless, let there be no doubt, we are moving in the right direction as an economy, and that means good news for Housing! And after surviving the last near half decade in the industry, I’m happy to tell you all today that my glass is half full.
Give me a holler at jasonb@tricastle.com, and check me out each and every Monday on www.tricastle.com for more, and be sure to tune in to SD6-CW to see myself, and our various local investors and rehabbers flip SD on “The Realty Insiders” real estate show, THE ONLY real estate show in town! Until next time San Diego, happy housing!
Jay's Outlook: sunny
Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty
