Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty: "RealtyTrac affords eyebrow-raising Foreclosure data"

Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty

DEL MAR – Gooooood Morning San Diego! I hope you all enjoyed the holiday weekend. I hope that you also will enjoy a four day work week as a result! Not me, not in this economy, not in this housing and lending market. There is no rest for the weary in these dog days. Weekends are a chance to take clients out in the field, rather than watch the big game. For us industry types, it is a grind. Work harder and smarter is the theme for those of us left standing in 2012. Those savvy clients looking to pick up property on the low end for a down the line return represent my clientele these days. Everybody wants a deal and they are definitely out there RIGHT NOW. More and more clients standing on the sidelines point towards the release of bank-owned inventory as an opportunity that awaits. And we've been hearing that for the better part of three years now. In looking back at my hard efforts of 2011, and researching around in order to forecast what 2012 may be like, I came across some interesting news this week from Realtytrac, that speaks to all that would-be inventory, evidently looming like a dangling fruit just out of reach.

Realtytrac is the producer of the largest database of foreclosure, auction, and bank-owned homes in the country. Among their end-of-year (2011) findings just released is data indicating a shift in foreclosure filings over the past year. In 2011, foreclosure findings in fact fell to a four year low, with a substantial slowdown in processing the dominant theme of the year.  So how much less? 34% less, a LARGE number, the lowest level overall since 2007, when the housing market truly shaped up as a lemming sprinting full force to the edge of the cliff (and we’re still waiting for him to hit the bottom)

Foreclosure filings, which include bank repossessions, scheduled auctions, and even default notices, totaled 1,887,777 in 2011 nationally.  To assess just how much of a slow-down in the processing of these filings occurred in 2011, consider the hard data on the aforementioned bank repossessions.  Bank seizures totaling 1,050,500 in 2010 fell to 804,423 in 2011.  That is significant.

What does this all mean to the housing market? Well, it depends on to whom you listen I suppose. Millions of folks will continue to squat in their homes, waiting for that sudden knock(and by that I mean foreclosure filing. Of course, the most sudden and final knock would be that of the Sheriff rapping saying that “it’s finally time to go”). But when will either come? Tomorrow? Next week? Next YEAR? EVER?! One thing is certain and that is that 2012 inevitably is facing another year like 2011 in terms of this beast of burden in the “Default and Squat” era just blundering on and on, with no real solution in sight. I suppose industry folks ought be somewhat grateful. A sweeping foreclosure process on ALL the millions of defaults nationally, and a re-release of those homes as bank-owned properties available to the public for purchase would mean another shock to the system. The market, what’s left of it, would collapse further under the weight of that massive new inventory. So it’s been a staggered process, has continued to stagger, and will very likely plod on in this fashion as far as most anyone can tell…  

 Give me a holler at jasonb@tricastle.com, and check me out each and every Monday on www.tricastle.com for more, and be sure to tune into “The Realty Insiders” on SD6-CW to see myself, and our various local investors and rehabbers flip SD.



Jay’s outlook: cloudy








Jason Bernabei, TriCastle Realty